Paul Quinn

A letter to Aaron Gilmore

Ele Ludemann is a blogger and a long time servant of the National party. She is also a decent hard working person, one of the nicest people you could ever wish to meet.

She writes on her blog a letter to Aaron Gilmore. I suggest he reads it. I suggest he thinks long and hard about what it says and I suggest he quietly resigns before anymore damage is done to his already poor reputation, and especially his family. For her to write this letter shows how deeply angry and disappointed she is. Normally Ele would work quietly behind the scenes.

Dear Aaron,

If you were at the Mainland Conference in Hanmer to the end you?d have heard West Coast Tasman MP Chris Auckinvole?s final words.

You might remember him talking about the importance of the two wings of the party, the MPs and the volunteers,? and the good that can be achieved when they?re working in unison.

That was before we knew you hadn?t been at the conference dinner as any MP who took his responsibility to the party seriously, and respected the volunteers, would have been.? Read more »

Who will run in Mt Roskill in Place of Jackie Blue?

Jackie Blue?s resignation from parliament means that National will need another person to take one for the team in the safe Labour seat of Mt Roskill. Phil Goff holds Roskill with a massive majority of 7,271, so no National candidate has a realistic chance of winning the seat.

National?s stupidity in supporting red seat candidates means it burns through good people who will not want to take a fisting in the ballot box to help out John Key and Steven Joyce and Peter Goodfellow. ?After the election the National Party was either dismissive or indifferent to those MPs likely to come back into the house or those who ran in red seats. ? Read more »

National’s Potential List MPs

Jackie Blue?s departure potentially brings Paul Quinn back into parliament. Paul was given the bums rush by the party hierarchy in 2011, and got given a list position that meant he didn?t make it back.

This was unfortunate as Paul is one of the few National MPs who has ever loved a brawl for the sake of a brawl. He lacked a little bit of discipline, but you could always rely on him stepping up rather than running away. As things get messier in parliament and the media knuckleheads really start smashing up the PM a good brawler like Paul would be handy.

Paul is on the record as saying he can’t be arsed going back to parliament, but it is his choice not National?s. National have been particularly half-witted in their dealings with Paul, so he hasn?t been given any interesting work to make sure he stays away.? Read more »

Tim Groser & the WTO

Reasonably well known left wing blogger David Farrar talks up Tim Groser in his attempt to leave Parliament for another job. This has been a poorly kept secret as everyone knows that Tim hasn?t enjoyed parliament that much, but some of his nocturnal activities may not find favour with the United States, nor the fact that Groser is a Muslim.

What Farrar doesn?t mention is that if Groser goes the next man on the list is Paul Quinn. Paul apparently has little love for the party leadership, after being shafted at list ranking last time around, and can be expected to come back stroppy. Add Quinn to Gilmore and there is a recipe for a fractious backbench that the diminutive Chief Whip will struggle to contain.

John Key?s one seat majority is starting to look a bit shaky as his mismanagement of personnel comes back to bite him on the arse.

The Race for Speaker, Ctd

Something else that few have factored in when considering this race is the next two men coming in on the list have no great love for National. Aaron Gilmore and Paul Quinn were given the bum’s rush, and my sources tell me they both blame Steven Joyce. Neither are certain of coming back in, as both have good jobs and know they will be shafted again at list ranking.

Since being out of parliament they have both been treated with disrespect or contempt by National, and they are both feeling quite unloved. Neither needs to be an MP, but by the same token neither is known to turn down the offer of a scrap so they might come back in seeking utu.

If Lockwood retires before the vote for speaker both these men may well back Tau for speaker just to let Joyce know he shouldn?t take their vote for granted.

The only scenario that seems likely for them to return to parliament after the next election is if there are massive resignations from people placed higher up the list, so it would not be a surprise if either man did not play the team game, realising it was in his own best interests to tank the government. A defeated National will see many list MPs leave parliament voluntarily rather than spend three years in opposition.


National’s Maori Caucus Gap

Thanks to seriously and serially inept planning and non existent leadership by National Party President Peter Goodfellow there are now only five members of caucus who are Maori.

Paula Bennett
Hekia Parata
Simon Bridges
Tau Henare
Jami-Lee Ross

Left caucus:

Georgina Te Heu Heu
Aaron Gilmore
Paul Quinn

Thanks to the hopeless candidate college National has become whiter, blokier and less representative of New Zealand. Heads should roll for this, as it is the basic function of the party to bring through good candidates who represent New Zealand.

Winners and Losers, Ctd

Some Winners and Losers from the National party.

Winners: Louise Upston & Amy Adams

Both Louise and Amy increased their majorities by over 6600 votes in an election where only 11 MPs increased their majorities. Amy already has a formidable reputation and Louise has now turned a red seat into a safe blue seat with a 13,000 majority. Amy?s ascension to cabinet is expected, and the tipline says we should look out for Louise. Her work ethic and attention to detail will be very valuable when things turn against National and they need a safe pair of hands. Also Louise doesn?t mind having a stoush with the teachers union so she comes with officially Whaleoil Approved.

Rank by Margin -National Party seats

Losers:??Jo de Joux

Known to be as abrasive as sandpaper, her personal reputation took a total battering this election. MPs and candidates who were sick of her screaming at them worked out that if they told her to ?Get Fucked? there was nothing she could do about it. Needs anger management training, perhaps with the party president. Though she did have her pleasant hat on when dealing with the Whale on Saturday night, probably because she knew David Farrar would write something nice about her the next day.

Losers:?Malcolm Plimmer

Was elected to the Lower North Island Regional Chair position based on campaigning and winning red seats. A bit too much talk and not enough results, with the marginal seats in the electorate blowing out to much safer Labour ones and a chance of a generation lost.

Labour Held Seats
2008 Margin 2011 Margin Increase in Margin
Palmerston North 1,117 3,001 1,884
Rimutaka 753 3,126 2,373
Wellington Central 1,904 5,111 3,207

Regional chairs play a crucial roll in List Ranking, and Malcolm lost a list MP in his region with Paul Quinn not making it back on in the list. Getting Quinn or another LNI list MP in was Malcolm?s responsibility.

This is very disappointing from someone who promised so much yet delivered so little. A man with integrity would tender his resignation for such failure.?

Chicken

Trevor Mallard talks big on cycling. I accepted his challenge, but when I counter challenged he bloused out.

He isn’t prepared to glove up and step in the ring to fight The Whale but seems quite happy to glove up and box a short arse.

Still at least we know the result of the fight with Quinn. Mallard was floored, just like he will be on 21 August when I leave him in my dust on the streets of Pakuranga.

He really should put something serious on the line, like his political career.

Quinn Floors Mallard

Paul Quinn does what Tau Henare should have done.

Can Paul Quinn beat Trevor Mallard in Hutt South?

The latest poll results putting Labour 26% behind National mean a lot of once safe red seats are increasingly vulnerable.

In Hutt South, where Labour?s crippled campaign manager has a majority of 4086 over former Wellington Rugby Captain Paul Quinn. This is with a 11% gap in the polls in 2008. In 2011 a 26% gap means that Paul can expect to win 350 votes per 1% change, so a 15% change means a swing of 5250 votes to Paul, or a nominal majority of 1164.

Labour will need to divert resources away from the marginal seat of Rimutaka where it is defending Chris Hipkins narrow majority to Hutt South to save Trevor. Bad luck for Chippy who won’t make it back in on the list, and really bad for Labour who have overloaded Mallard with the Campaign Managers role, as well as him being busy fighting an?asymmetrical?war he cannot win against a blogger who cannot lose. Duck is pretty busy anyway, without needing to have to campaign in his seat against a fiercely competitive opponent.

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