polling

No improvement for Labour, Ardern ahead of Little in latest 1 News poll

Six months out from the election and Andrew Little is still failing to gain traction in the polls.

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is dire reading for Andrew Little and Labour.

There’s little change for the major parties though with National steady this month on 46, Labour also unchanged on 30 and the Greens holding their ground on 11 per cent.<

New Zealand First has however slipped three per cent to eight per cent this month.

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POLL: Will National get your 2017 Party Vote?

Whaleoil will run a  monthly poll to see where those who supported National during the 2014 election are likely to go this year.   Hopefully we will be able to detect any shifts throughout the year leading up to September.

If you did not vote for National in 2014, and you do intend to do so for 2017, then this poll isn’t for you.  We are looking to measure the “restlessness” among 2014 National supporters.    Read more »

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How can the fourth end up being first?

Under MMP we may yet see the possibility of the fourth most popular person eventually becoming Prime Minister.

The latest poll has Bill English out in front, with Jacinda Ardern in second place.

Behind Jacindarella is Winston Peters…who is also ahead of Andrew Little.   Read more »

“It will never happen” – Jacinda Ardern

If Andrew didn’t see this coming, he’s even more dense than I thought.

Basically, a Labour party led by Jacinda Ardern will get the extra few percentage points to make Labour + Winston a real possibility.   Read more »

Roy Morgan poll shows slump for National in wake of Israel betrayal

Bit odd that we didn’t notice this two days ago when it came out.  Oddly enough, the left haven’t been leveraging this as any kind of win either.  Perhaps they too are cautious of the Roy Morgan as it is the most variable poll in New Zealand.

During March support for National fell by 4.5% to 43.5%, now just behind a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 44% (up 5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call with New Zealand first likely to play a decisive role in determining which parties would form the next Government.   Read more »

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More bad news… for Labour

Guest post

Last week we showed how National were in trouble [link to www.whaleoil.co.nz/2017/02/why-national-are-in-trouble/] comparing the poll history of the Colmar Brunton poll take in February of an election year.

Conclusion: Colmar Brunton Poll gives National false hope.

Now let’s see what history tells us about the latest Roy Morgan Poll and the Labour Party.
Back in 2008 while Labour was in Government they polled 36.5% in the February Roy Morgan poll, later that year lost the general election with 34% of the vote.

In February 2011, Roy Morgan had them at 35%, but they only received 27.5% of the vote in the general election.

In February 2014, they were at 33% but only received 25% of the vote in the general election.
Every time they have polled higher in February than the general election, with a drop off of up to 8%.

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Roy Morgan continues to go up and down like a whore’s drawers

Roy Morgan polls aren’t really believable. They go up and down like a whore’s drawers. No reputable polling company shows swings like they do.

So why am I covering it?

Because Labour swears by Roy Morgan, last month the idiots at The Standard were salivating over the Roy Morgan. They will probably ignore this one.

During February support for National rose by 2% to 48% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 39% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would retain Government with the support of minor party allies.   Read more »

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First poll of year sees Nats slump 4 points, thanks Murray

National has slumped 4 points int he latest 1News/Colmar Brunton poll.

This is the first poll since John Key cut and run.

National is at 46 per cent in the first 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll for the 2017 election year, down four points from the November poll.

Labour has climbed two points to 30, while the Greens are steady on 11 per cent, taking the centre left block’s combined vote to 41 percent.

Back in November National was 11 per cent ahead of the Labour-Greens combo.

New Zealand First is up one per cent to 11, and, based on our polling, would hold the balance of power post-election.

ACT is up one to one per cent, as is the Mana Party, which is back in the frame on one.

The Maori Party is steady on one per cent.

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Predictable poll result from Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and after a period of two months of utter silence on previous results, the left-wing is all abuzz that National has dropped.

During December support for National fell by 4.5% to 45% now just ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 43% (up 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be a very close result.

Support for the National partners was down across the board with the Maori Party down 0.5% at 1%, Act NZ fell 0.5% to 0.5% and United Future was down 0.5% to 0%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 28.5% (up 5.5%) – following a strong performance in the Mt. Roskill by-election, Greens 14.5% (unchanged) and NZ First 7.5% (down 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

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Release the poll Andrew, release the poll

Andrew Little is refusing to release Labour’s internal polling after two polls show their position is worse than when he called Colmar Brunton’s poll two months ago bogus.

National has gained support in the latest opinion poll and is close to 50 per cent while Labour has slumped to its lowest rating in two years.

The just-released Roy Morgan poll gives National 49.5 per cent, up 1.5 points in a month, while Labour has shed 3.5 points and has fallen to 23 per cent.

The Greens have gained three points to reach 14.5 per cent, giving a Labour/Greens alliance 37.5 per cent.

NZ First is down two points to eight per cent.

A Colmar Brunton poll released on Sunday gave Labour 28 per cent.   Read more »