The decapitation strategy in play now

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger, David Farrar, writes:

I?ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curia.

It has Labour at 23% which would see them get just 28 MPs in a House of 120. As they hold 27 electorates it means on that poll they would get just one List MP ? their leader Andrew Little. If they drop just 1% more, then Little loses his seat. Alternatively if they pick up one more electorate seat then again Little loses his seat.

Other List MPs such as Jacinda Ardern and David Parker are toast on this result.

It is always useful to compare polls to the same time period in the previous election cycle. So how are National and Labour placed in November 2013 and November 2016? ? Read more »

Roy Morgan matches Colmar Brunton, are both bogus?

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and it broadly matches the recent Colmar Brunton poll.

During November support for National rose by 1.5% to 49.5% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 37.5% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party unchanged at 1.5% while Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was up 0.5% to 0.5%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour?s support was at 23% (down 3.5%) ? the lowest support for Labour for over two years,?Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 8% (down 2%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

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Was this poll bogus too?


The last One News/Colmar Brunton poll appears to be another “bogus” poll for Labour:

There has been a strong showing for National in the last 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton opinion poll of the year, with the party climbing two percentage points in our November Poll to 50 per cent.

The poll, taken in part after the Kaikoura earthquake, also shows Labour making some ground, up two points to 28 per cent.

However its centre left partner the Greens have slipped back to two per cent this poll to 11 per cent. That gives the Labour-Green block 39 per cent in total.

New Zealand First is back one per cent to 10 per cent, while the Maori Party’s support has slipped from two to one per cent. ? Read more »


If only media had used real big data for the US Elections


The chart above was highlighted to me by a friend (who is brilliant at statistics) two days ahead of the election. She (and her husband) have been saying for months Donald Trump would win.

But, everyone?(including me) ignored really big data, instead preferring to focus on single polls, and the data expertise of Nate Silver. My gut feel told me it was harder to pick than a broken nose, but these two were adamant, Trump was going to win. BTW they are the same two who in 2014 on election night called the election 3 hours before media did…no one will know that except the WO team, but they did.

Now, Nate Silver does use big data, but his data is just the polls all across the country, plus some demographic information and his proprietary algorithms and assumptions. It is all well and good, but when it fails people start questioning polls, so-called big data and ignoring data sets that are right in front of you. Instead of the wisdom of thousands of polls and dozens of pollsters, you are using the wisdom of search engines and millions upon millions of searches. ? Read more »

Will Andrew Little release his internal polls after a disastrous Roy Morgan poll?

Roy Morgan? Our polls are way better

Roy Morgan? Our polls are way better

The last time Labour had a bad poll Andrew Little released his internal polling to show TVNZ was wrong and his polling geniuses were right.

He will need to do that again because the latest Roy Morgan poll is a disaster for him on the eve of Labour’s 100th conference.

During October support for National rose by 6.5% to 48% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 38% (down 7.5%) after Prime Minister John Key travelled extensively overseas ? including an address to a UN conference in late September. If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected. ?? Read more »


Latest Roy Morgan poll proves Andrew Little was right to ignore the centre

It seems I was wrong. And Helen Clark was wrong, and John Key was wrong. The winning of the election isn’t in the centre, it is heading left like Bryan Gould says.

The latest Roy Morgan poll suggests that Andrew Little’s eschewing of the centre is a brilliant move. Instead of trying to out National National, they need to double down on socialism…it’s working.


During September support for National fell for the second straight month, by 4.5% to 41.5% (the lowest support for National in three years since September 2013) now clearly behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45.5% (up 5.5%) for the first time in a year ? since September 2015 after Prime Minister John Key attended several overseas summits in early September. ? Read more »

Danyl on Labour’s dodgy polling

Danyl McLauchlan is having a blinder. He has dropped the sarcasm and started blogging in a rather perspicacious manner.

His latest effort on the spin being pushed by Labour on the polling is interesting and answers a lot of questions about why it is that Labour can’t make any dents in National’s numbers.

My current theory of New Zealand politics is that the party voter bases look roughly like this:

linearvenn Read more »


Ele Ludemann on Labour’s dodgy polls

Ele Ludemann is a very, very capable woman who blogs about politics. Here at Whaleoil,we enjoy reading what Ele has to say, and wish she would say a bit more of it as she is a very wise judge of politics.

She absolutely nails Labour and their dodgy polling with this fantastic post.

Individual polls are probably only of interest to political tragics but others might take more interest in the trends which have National in the mid 40s and suggest the UMR?poll is an outlier.

Labour could have set a silly precedent and dug a hole for itself by releasing its own poll. ?? Read more »


Labour’s dodgy polling


Arts, Travel & Lifestyle blogger David Farrar is widely regarded as being New Zealand?s best pollster. That is why we use him for Incite polling, and why we listen when he tells us a poll is dodgy.

He is clearly saying Labour?s polling is dodgy, and has posted about it.


A rather desperate Andrew Little has released their internal polling from??to try and convince people they are really winning.

UMR is a very good company and I often refer people to them, if I can?t do the work. But I will comment on this specific poll as it is vastly different to every other poll published. ? Read more »


Is it time to #changetheopposition?


One News has released their latest Colmar Brunton poll. After months of fabricated crisis after crisis this is the result…

It’s a shocker for Labour and Andrew Little is calling the poll “bogus”.

There are fresh worries for Labour following the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

The party has slipped three points to 26 per cent. That’s the lowest it’s been in the ONE News poll since the last election when it recorded 25 per cent.

National, however, remains in fine form riding high, steady this month at 48 per cent, the same result it picked up on election night in 2014. ?? Read more »