Polls

Why National are in trouble

Guest post

Several commentators and other bloggers are saying the latest Colmar Brunton poll is great for National and the Key/English/McCully effect has made no difference. History tells us otherwise, they are in trouble.

Back in February 2008, National was polling at 54%, in the election they won with 45% of the vote.

In February 2011 and February 2014, National was polling at 51%, in the election they won 47% of the vote.

Every time National has polled high in February but dropped 4% or more each time in the elections.

Read more »

First poll of year sees Nats slump 4 points, thanks Murray

National has slumped 4 points int he latest 1News/Colmar Brunton poll.

This is the first poll since John Key cut and run.

National is at 46 per cent in the first 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll for the 2017 election year, down four points from the November poll.

Labour has climbed two points to 30, while the Greens are steady on 11 per cent, taking the centre left block’s combined vote to 41 percent.

Back in November National was 11 per cent ahead of the Labour-Greens combo.

New Zealand First is up one per cent to 11, and, based on our polling, would hold the balance of power post-election.

ACT is up one to one per cent, as is the Mana Party, which is back in the frame on one.

The Maori Party is steady on one per cent.

Read more »

Tagged:

Predictable poll result from Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and after a period of two months of utter silence on previous results, the left-wing is all abuzz that National has dropped.

During December support for National fell by 4.5% to 45% now just ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 43% (up 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be a very close result.

Support for the National partners was down across the board with the Maori Party down 0.5% at 1%, Act NZ fell 0.5% to 0.5% and United Future was down 0.5% to 0%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 28.5% (up 5.5%) – following a strong performance in the Mt. Roskill by-election, Greens 14.5% (unchanged) and NZ First 7.5% (down 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

Read more »

Tagged:

Release the poll Andrew, release the poll

Andrew Little is refusing to release Labour’s internal polling after two polls show their position is worse than when he called Colmar Brunton’s poll two months ago bogus.

National has gained support in the latest opinion poll and is close to 50 per cent while Labour has slumped to its lowest rating in two years.

The just-released Roy Morgan poll gives National 49.5 per cent, up 1.5 points in a month, while Labour has shed 3.5 points and has fallen to 23 per cent.

The Greens have gained three points to reach 14.5 per cent, giving a Labour/Greens alliance 37.5 per cent.

NZ First is down two points to eight per cent.

A Colmar Brunton poll released on Sunday gave Labour 28 per cent.   Read more »

The decapitation strategy in play now

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger, David Farrar, writes:

I’ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curia.

It has Labour at 23% which would see them get just 28 MPs in a House of 120. As they hold 27 electorates it means on that poll they would get just one List MP – their leader Andrew Little. If they drop just 1% more, then Little loses his seat. Alternatively if they pick up one more electorate seat then again Little loses his seat.

Other List MPs such as Jacinda Ardern and David Parker are toast on this result.

It is always useful to compare polls to the same time period in the previous election cycle. So how are National and Labour placed in November 2013 and November 2016?   Read more »

Roy Morgan matches Colmar Brunton, are both bogus?

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and it broadly matches the recent Colmar Brunton poll.

During November support for National rose by 1.5% to 49.5% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 37.5% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party unchanged at 1.5% while Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was up 0.5% to 0.5%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 23% (down 3.5%)the lowest support for Labour for over two years, Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 8% (down 2%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

Read more »

Tagged:

Was this poll bogus too?

screen-shot-2016-11-27-at-8-03-39-pm

The last One News/Colmar Brunton poll appears to be another “bogus” poll for Labour:

There has been a strong showing for National in the last 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton opinion poll of the year, with the party climbing two percentage points in our November Poll to 50 per cent.

The poll, taken in part after the Kaikoura earthquake, also shows Labour making some ground, up two points to 28 per cent.

However its centre left partner the Greens have slipped back to two per cent this poll to 11 per cent. That gives the Labour-Green block 39 per cent in total.

New Zealand First is back one per cent to 10 per cent, while the Maori Party’s support has slipped from two to one per cent.   Read more »

Tagged:

If only media had used real big data for the US Elections

98433914051b48b09377bdca4b8f91414e5b1f5beb4018137e8248a004248f44

The chart above was highlighted to me by a friend (who is brilliant at statistics) two days ahead of the election. She (and her husband) have been saying for months Donald Trump would win.

But, everyone (including me) ignored really big data, instead preferring to focus on single polls, and the data expertise of Nate Silver. My gut feel told me it was harder to pick than a broken nose, but these two were adamant, Trump was going to win. BTW they are the same two who in 2014 on election night called the election 3 hours before media did…no one will know that except the WO team, but they did.

Now, Nate Silver does use big data, but his data is just the polls all across the country, plus some demographic information and his proprietary algorithms and assumptions. It is all well and good, but when it fails people start questioning polls, so-called big data and ignoring data sets that are right in front of you. Instead of the wisdom of thousands of polls and dozens of pollsters, you are using the wisdom of search engines and millions upon millions of searches.   Read more »

Will Andrew Little release his internal polls after a disastrous Roy Morgan poll?

Roy Morgan? Our polls are way better

Roy Morgan? Our polls are way better

The last time Labour had a bad poll Andrew Little released his internal polling to show TVNZ was wrong and his polling geniuses were right.

He will need to do that again because the latest Roy Morgan poll is a disaster for him on the eve of Labour’s 100th conference.

During October support for National rose by 6.5% to 48% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 38% (down 7.5%) after Prime Minister John Key travelled extensively overseas – including an address to a UN conference in late September. If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.    Read more »

Tagged:

Latest Roy Morgan poll proves Andrew Little was right to ignore the centre

It seems I was wrong. And Helen Clark was wrong, and John Key was wrong. The winning of the election isn’t in the centre, it is heading left like Bryan Gould says.

The latest Roy Morgan poll suggests that Andrew Little’s eschewing of the centre is a brilliant move. Instead of trying to out National National, they need to double down on socialism…it’s working.

roy-morgan-september-2016-620x347

During September support for National fell for the second straight month, by 4.5% to 41.5% (the lowest support for National in three years since September 2013) now clearly behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45.5% (up 5.5%) for the first time in a year – since September 2015 after Prime Minister John Key attended several overseas summits in early September.   Read more »