Roy Morgan Poll

The beginning of the end

Richard Harman provides background on the latest Roy Morgan poll: ?it backs up what National’s own polling has been saying (apparently)

The latest Roy Morgan poll continues the surge in Labour support that showed up in the leaked UMR poll a fortnight ago.

The Morgan poll, has Labour on 33.5% — its lowest recent poll rating was 26% in the Colmar Brunton poll on September 7.

But what will worry National is that the Morgan poll, like the UMR poll, shows its support well below its recent high of 48% in the Colmar Brunton poll.

Morgan has National at 41.5%

However, the Morgan poll has the two other Opposition parties, the Greens and NZ First down.

The Greens are on 12% and NZ First, perhaps surprisingly, on 8.5%, down one per cent on their previous month’s showing in the Morgan poll.

The net effect of this would be to give New Zealand First the balance of power.

But what might interest National is that the Maori Party showed a slight upwards move to two per cent. Read more »

Russel “give me my flag back” Norman reckons Labour rolling Shearer cost them the election

Russel Norman, whose only achievement in parliament was making representation of gingas over-representative, reckons that Labour made a big mistake in rolling David Shearer.

Russel Norman may have officially departed Parliament, but he left a few wise words of wisdom for Labour as he shut door on his political career.

The former Greens co-leader told The Nation this morning that rolling former leader David Shearer could have lost Labour the 2014 election.

“I think it could well have changed the course of the election. I do believe that. I think they made a mistake, but you know, that’s politics.”

Dr Norman said he and Mr Shearer had maintained a friendly relationship while they were both at the helm of their respective parties, which he thought was a “very positive thing”. ? Read more »

Andrew Little is the “2% man”

rwer

Labour got themselves a massive 2% bounce above the election result since Andrew Little took over and started hammering Key and National about their relationship with some vile, despicable, toxic blogger who is the most hated and despised person in New Zealand (after Kim Dotcom). ? Read more »

Labour, Greens, NZ First all slide to near obscurity in latest Roy Morgan

National 52.5% (+7),

Labour 29.5 (-1.5)

Greens 9% (-4.5)

NZF 4.5 (-1.5)

Mana/Int 1%

Oh dear oh dear. ?The darling poll of the left has Labour below 30, NZ First won’t make the 5% target, and the Greens have crashed to single digits. ? On top of that, Mana/Int won’t have enough for a 2nd seat. ?No danger of coat tailing there.

Another rogue poll?

Or are the left finally going to accept that everything they’re selling isn’t want the electorate wants?

Full results: ? Read more »

Labour’s latest poll number starts with a two

I know I shouldn’t really blog about the latest Roy Morgan, I have explained why before.

But the left wing bloggers and the Labour party hold great store in the results of the Roy Morgan polls. They constantly say to look at the trend…and so we will.

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and Labour’s number starts with a two.

Today?s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large rise in support for Prime Minister John Key?s National Party to 51% (up 4% since July 1-14, 2013). Support for Key?s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for Labour is 29% (down 2%); Greens are 10% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National-led Coalition parties would win easily.? Read more »

Roy Morgan Poll

The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out. The poll continues to be up and down like whore’s drawers.

Today?s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for Prime Minister John Key?s National Party to 44% (down 2% since late January). Support for Key?s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 0.5% (down 1%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).? Read more »

Latest Roy Morgan Poll

Shearer just can’t get the numbers to budge:

Today?s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows steady support for Prime Minister John Key?s National Party at 46% (unchanged since mid January). Support for Key?s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 31.5% (unchanged); Greens are 13.5% (up 1.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 0.5% (down 1%) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held today this NZ Roy Morgan Poll says the result would be too close to call.? Read more »

Roy Morgan poll

The single interest fringe policy push from Labour MP?s and the Dotcom/GCSB video that Shearer choked to death on sees Labour plummet in latest Roy Morgan poll:

Today?s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a rise in support for Prime Minister John Key?s National Party to 43.5% (up 2% since September 24 ? October 7, 2012). Support for Key?s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 3.5% (up 2%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 29% (down 4.5%); Greens are 13% (down 0.5%), New Zealand First 7.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

National’s Strategic Stupidity, Ctd

Farrar shows the numbers of MPs based on the latest Roy Morgan Poll.

The?latest Roy Morgan poll? is sober news for National. They are still 8% ahead of Labour, but 5.5% behind Labour and Greens combined. On this poll the seats would be:

  • National 51
  • Labour 41
  • Greens 17
  • NZF 8
  • Maori 3
  • United 1
  • Mana 1

This was entirely predictable and was why National?s opponents, the Greens and the Union movement, opposed a change to the electoral system. Steven Joyce refused to do anything about it, so he has created a situation where National no longer much chance of being in government.

You need 62 seats to govern, so either Lab/Gre/NZF or Nat/NZF/Maori. United Future and Mana might be there but wouldn?t make the difference.

Farrar?s scenario for a National government is to do a dodgy deal with Winston. That may preserve John Key and Steven Joyce?s power but last time National did a deal with Winston they ended up in opposition for 9 years.

National’s Strategic Stupidity, Ctd

The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out showing that Steven Joyce?s self serving and self congratulatory approach to the 2011 election are going to bite him and National hard in 2014. The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows the arse falling out of National?s support, and them having no coalition partners.

Joyce has not been helped by that fat German prick tying the PM in knots, or Queen Hekia being dead set useless, or Big Gerry getting caught out being tactless and lazy in Christchurch. He may try to pull a rabbit out of a hat and do a deal with Winston, but I am hearing privately that caucus members are talking up a campaign to stop National doing a dodgy deal with Winston.

National Party members should ask Steven Joyce why the hell he didn?t do what the tories did around the AV referendum.

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