Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan poll shows slump for National in wake of Israel betrayal

Bit odd that we didn’t notice this two days ago when it came out.  Oddly enough, the left haven’t been leveraging this as any kind of win either.  Perhaps they too are cautious of the Roy Morgan as it is the most variable poll in New Zealand.

During March support for National fell by 4.5% to 43.5%, now just behind a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 44% (up 5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call with New Zealand first likely to play a decisive role in determining which parties would form the next Government.   Read more »

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Roy Morgan continues to go up and down like a whore’s drawers

Roy Morgan polls aren’t really believable. They go up and down like a whore’s drawers. No reputable polling company shows swings like they do.

So why am I covering it?

Because Labour swears by Roy Morgan, last month the idiots at The Standard were salivating over the Roy Morgan. They will probably ignore this one.

During February support for National rose by 2% to 48% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 39% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would retain Government with the support of minor party allies.   Read more »

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Predictable poll result from Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and after a period of two months of utter silence on previous results, the left-wing is all abuzz that National has dropped.

During December support for National fell by 4.5% to 45% now just ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 43% (up 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be a very close result.

Support for the National partners was down across the board with the Maori Party down 0.5% at 1%, Act NZ fell 0.5% to 0.5% and United Future was down 0.5% to 0%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 28.5% (up 5.5%) – following a strong performance in the Mt. Roskill by-election, Greens 14.5% (unchanged) and NZ First 7.5% (down 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

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The decapitation strategy in play now

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger, David Farrar, writes:

I’ve blogged the latest Roy Morgan poll at Curia.

It has Labour at 23% which would see them get just 28 MPs in a House of 120. As they hold 27 electorates it means on that poll they would get just one List MP – their leader Andrew Little. If they drop just 1% more, then Little loses his seat. Alternatively if they pick up one more electorate seat then again Little loses his seat.

Other List MPs such as Jacinda Ardern and David Parker are toast on this result.

It is always useful to compare polls to the same time period in the previous election cycle. So how are National and Labour placed in November 2013 and November 2016?   Read more »

Roy Morgan matches Colmar Brunton, are both bogus?

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and it broadly matches the recent Colmar Brunton poll.

During November support for National rose by 1.5% to 49.5% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 37.5% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party unchanged at 1.5% while Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was up 0.5% to 0.5%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 23% (down 3.5%)the lowest support for Labour for over two years, Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 8% (down 2%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

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Will Andrew Little release his internal polls after a disastrous Roy Morgan poll?

Roy Morgan? Our polls are way better

Roy Morgan? Our polls are way better

The last time Labour had a bad poll Andrew Little released his internal polling to show TVNZ was wrong and his polling geniuses were right.

He will need to do that again because the latest Roy Morgan poll is a disaster for him on the eve of Labour’s 100th conference.

During October support for National rose by 6.5% to 48% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 38% (down 7.5%) after Prime Minister John Key travelled extensively overseas – including an address to a UN conference in late September. If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.    Read more »

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Latest Roy Morgan poll proves Andrew Little was right to ignore the centre

It seems I was wrong. And Helen Clark was wrong, and John Key was wrong. The winning of the election isn’t in the centre, it is heading left like Bryan Gould says.

The latest Roy Morgan poll suggests that Andrew Little’s eschewing of the centre is a brilliant move. Instead of trying to out National National, they need to double down on socialism…it’s working.

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During September support for National fell for the second straight month, by 4.5% to 41.5% (the lowest support for National in three years since September 2013) now clearly behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45.5% (up 5.5%) for the first time in a year – since September 2015 after Prime Minister John Key attended several overseas summits in early September.   Read more »

So Labour, tell us again what your internal polling is showing

Labour MPs are being lied to by Andrew Little’s dream team. They keep telling them that National is on 41% and Labour is on 32% in their internal polling. They also claim that John Key’s net approvals are falling.

There is a massive problem with both of those propositions. Our own exclusive polling for INCITE: Politics shows Andrew Little’s net approvals are deeply negative while John Key’s net approvals are positive.

Secondly, public polls keep coming out showing a massive difference between Labour’s whispering campaign to talk up their own polling.

The latest being the Roy Morgan poll.

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

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Little takes Labour to Cunliffe levels in latest poll

The left-wing are all cock-a-hoop about the latest Roy Morgan poll.

For the life of me I can’t understand why.

During April support for National fell 3.5% to 42.5% – the lowest for two years since April – May 2014, now only 2% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 1.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 12.5% (up 3.5% to their highest level of support in twenty years) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, up 0.5% to 1.5%, Act NZ was 1.5% (up 0.5%) – Act NZ’s highest level of support since late 2014 and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 26% (down 2%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3.5% to 12.5% – its highest level of support since the 1996 NZ Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).

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Another poll confirms Labour’s 35% pipe-dream still isn’t real

I know it is the Roy Morgan, but Labour have claimed for years that this is the most accurate poll, despite the numbers going up and down like a whore’s drawers.

This poll shows that Labour are still languishing below 30%, much lower than when David Shearer was leader.

During March support for National fell 2.5% to 46% – the lowest since September 2015, now only 4% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42% (up 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% (up 3%) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, unchanged at 1%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 28% (up 1%), Greens 14% (down 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3% to 9% – its highest level of support in over a decade since August 2005. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

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