Guest Post: Never make predictions, especially about the future


Casey Stengel was a talker.? He could also ?walk the talk?.? He was a very successful baseball player and coach who was nicknamed ?The Old Perfessor? for the wisdom of his quotes.? One of his wittiest was, ?Never make predictions, especially about the future.?

Even well-informed and experienced analysts get their predictions wrong sometimes. A few years ago the leading milk product packaging company Tetrapak made the prediction that dairy prices, internationally, would continue to rise well into the 2020s.? Their graphs showed no blips, just a steady widening of the gap between supply and demand leading to increasing prices. Tetrapak had put together a group of very smart analysts who had developed a reputation for having a credible grasp of the world dairy scene and an ability to understand trends and changes.

Of course, they didn?t see the Russian boycott coming but they may have been able to better understand the removal of restrictions on production in Europe and factor that in because history shows that the Irish, French, Dutch and Germans can all ramp up production very quickly with their access to high quality foodstuffs and the various subsidy support measures they have as a rural industry. ? Read more »