Ele Ludemann on Labour’s dodgy polls

Ele Ludemann is a very, very capable woman who blogs about politics. Here at Whaleoil,we enjoy reading what Ele has to say, and wish she would say a bit more of it as she is a very wise judge of politics.

She absolutely nails Labour and their dodgy polling with this fantastic post.

Individual polls are probably only of interest to political tragics but others might take more interest in the trends which have National in the mid 40s and suggest the UMR?poll is an outlier.

Labour could have set a silly precedent and dug a hole for itself by releasing its own poll. ?? Read more »


Labour’s dodgy polling


Arts, Travel & Lifestyle blogger David Farrar is widely regarded as being New Zealand?s best pollster. That is why we use him for Incite polling, and why we listen when he tells us a poll is dodgy.

He is clearly saying Labour?s polling is dodgy, and has posted about it.


A rather desperate Andrew Little has released their internal polling from??to try and convince people they are really winning.

UMR is a very good company and I often refer people to them, if I can?t do the work. But I will comment on this specific poll as it is vastly different to every other poll published. ? Read more »


Why even the Media party no longer trust Labour

The Media party really don’t like John Key.

For a couple of elections they’ve tried really hard to unseat the government with stings, smears and attacks. Bizarrely, last election there was an attack on a journalist and media personality in an attempt to get rid of John Key.

For a couple of months senior Labour MPs have been putting it about that their internal polling before Christmas was showing Labour on 35%.

No public poll in the last three years has shown Labour on 35%…not since David Shearer was leader did they come close.

Journalists were privately laughing, but those senior Labour MPs were insistent on the ‘truth’ of their polling.

Either the public polls were wrong or Labour’s poll was wrong…or the poll wasn’t wrong; Labour was spinning it better than it was.

It isn’t a coincidence that this is the same issue that raised its head during the election when Labour and their various proxies, like Rob Salmond, were putting it about that Labour were higher in their own polling than the public polls. It all got drowned out in the Dirty Politics hit job…but at one stage it was stated Labour’s polling was at 35% when on election night it was a full 10% lower. Support doesn’t evaporate that much, that fast. ? Read more »


The Delusions of the Left on their Internal Poll

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Yesterday we published a couple of posts highlighting the stupidity of anyone believing the UMR polls, mainly because they are so far out of sync with the TV One & TV3 Polls. Remember that the two TV polls had Labour 15% behind National, yet Labour are now claiming their internal polls are at 41-35, a gap of 6.

The halfwits on the left immediately seized on this as a panic attack on Whaleoil, rather than a deliberate take down of a poll that has no credibility. Chris Trotter wrote at the Daily Bog:

?Something Very, Very Different?: Why rumours of Labour?s internal poll numbers are giving the Nats the heebie-jeebies

Who knows which National Party Chris is thinking about but the only thing Labour?s rigged poll has given National is a lot of laughs. ? Read more »


UMR doesn’t stand for Unbelievably Massaged Result

Different? What do you mean different?

Different? What do you mean different?

Labour?s pollsters UMR have allegedly done a poll that shows Labour 41-35 down instead of 47-31 down as all the other polls show.

People in the polling industry are very surprised with these numbers, and consider them to be highly unlikely.

They also consider it highly unlikely that a reputable polling company like UMR would ever get a poll that is this far different from all the other polls.

The issue for UMR is that if their brand gets damaged by showing crazy poll results that don’t reflect reality some of their commercial candidates will axe them.

Unbelievable political polls damage polling organisations reputations, and cost them work. UMR will be desperate to release the actual polls to show they are not dodgy.

Labour should release the raw data from the poll to prove that it is kosher. ? Read more »

The Questions Labour Needs to Ask UMR

What do you mean margin of error stuff, Phil said this would work?

What do you mean margin of error stuff, Phil said this would work?

The Labour Party is doing a lot of self-congratulating at the moment.

Their internal polls show something very, very different from the publicly available polls. Apparently, the gap between Labour & National is about 6 or 7 percent in internal poll results, ?when the public polls have it at 15%.

People thinking that Labour have found the new messiah in Andrew Little probably need to start thinking again – because there is no way the public polls and the UMR polls could be that different. Likely as not there has been some fudging of the polls before they are shared with the Labour caucus tomorrow.

Caucus members who do not wish to be deceived by polls should be asking the following questions:

1. Why are the UMR polls so different from the public polls?

A nice easy question to get them started. ? ? Read more »

Why Labour needs to distance themselves from the unions

Labour’s deep history is wedded with the union movement, but it is a history that they need to put behind them in order to advance.

It hasn’t helped that the unions shoe-horned their master into the leadership when Andrew Little won the leadership race.

Labour parties the world over are struggling with their union backers.

In Australia there is a long line up of union officials, former union officials who are now MPs and Labor MPs funded and backed by the unions being paraded before various Independent Commissions Against Corruption.

In the UK Unite union is the king-maker and essentially owns the Labour party through their massive multi-million pound donations.

In New Zealand Labour’s biggest donors are the unions, kicking in hundreds of thousands of dollars in members cash, time and manpower to assist Labour. The NZ Dairy Workers union kicked in $40,000 before the election last year. The EPMU (Andrew Little’s union) tipped in $60,000 in July 2014. These are small numbers when compared to the UK but they are Labour’s largest declared donors.

So, why would I say that Labour should distance themselves from the unions?

Well, because the latest UMR (Labour’s own pollster) mood of the nation report shows that unions are not well-loved.

umr-trusted Read more »


Is David Cunliffe about to lurch Labour back towards the centre?

Matthew Hooton believes that The?Cunliffe may be about to lurch Labour back towards the centre as they attempt to get some traction…any traction at this election campaign.

If that is the case then John Tamihere’s assessment?in the Herald this morning is spot on, that?”He’s an extraordinarily talented chap but you never get to see the real David. You get to see the David that he thinks you want to see. And that’s his problem.”

Hooton is alluding to that in his column at NBR.

If David Cunliffe becomes prime minister this spring, the origins of his win will be traced to the last week.

This may seem counterintuitive. After all, his highest profile move was his apology for being a man, generally lampooned as absurd. More substantively, though, it revealed a deeply collectivist worldview, where people?s main identity is not as an individual with personal responsibility but where we are primarily members of categories from which we accrue collective guilt and credit.

Such a political philosophy may be abhorrent to anyone who values basic concepts of human autonomy but it was wildly popular among Labour?s Women?s Council, the unions and the far-left activists who back Mr Cunliffe. Some even rang Mr Cunliffe?s office weeping with gratitude.

Intentionally or otherwise, the apology created cover for a repositioning of Mr Cunliffe back to the centre, which would begin at Labour?s conference the following day and is at the heart of Labour?s strategy for the next 10 weeks.

The Cunliffe needs to do this because so far his socialist prescription is failing to resonate.

Mr Cunliffe ran for leader from the far-left, with rhetoric about red roses, the failed neoliberal experiment, the missing million, the misery of 250,000 children living in poverty, and a commitment that his Labour would be ?deep red, not pale blue.?

As a strategy to become leader it worked well but it reversed all the progress Labour had made in the wider polls under David Shearer?s more centrist approach.

Talking down New Zealand as a failed state with starving kids wasn?t connecting with voters experiencing economic growth, falling unemployment, rising wages, low inflation, still-modest interest rates and a kiwi dollar enabling them to afford some luxuries after five difficult years. ? Read more »

Labour getting ready to shaft Shane Jones?


Further to my earlier post about UMR polling by the Labour party there is this wee gem included.

Which of the following is closer to your own view even if not quite right?

o?Shane Jones delivered amusing one liners but his political career was accident?prone and did not amount to much. The most attention he got was for using his?parliamentary credit card to pay for pornographic movies.
o?Shane Jones was one of the few politicians who tells it like it is and with?his attacks on Countdown has been the most effective Labour politician?this year. He will be a huge loss to Labour especially amongst Maori and?blue collar voters.

Read more »

Is Labour looking at taxing polluters to pay for tax cuts for everyone else?

via the tipline

It would seem so, their polling company, the multinational UMR, is asking people some very leading questions.

Our tipster says:

Hi Cam,

I occasionally get sent invitations from UMR to fill out online surveys. I thought maybe some of your readers would be interested in some of the questions they have been asking recently. Could the ?carbon tax on polluters? be Labour?s next big election bribe?

I also find it rather amusing how loaded some of the questions are. Are they trying to influence my vote through their surveys?

How likely are you to support a carbon tax on polluters with the money raised by the tax returned to all New Zealanders by making up to $10,000 of your earnings tax free?

If a political party proposed a personal tax cut funded by a charge on climate polluters, what impact would that have on your vote?

o???Much more likely to vote for that party
o???A little more likely to vote for that party
o???No difference
o???A little less likely to vote for that party
o???Much less likely to vote for that party

Read more »