Waimakariri

Clayton Cosgrove still working hard…for himself and not Labour

A reader emails from Christchurch.

Hi Cam

Nor’West News dated Monday 8th September.

Half page add by Clayton again showing how hard he is working.

Again no Labour branding.

photo 1

Still mis-leading by labelling himself MP Waimakiriri

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Waimakariri – Compare and Contrast

Clayton Cosgrove and Matthew Doocey are going head to head in Waimakariri.

Below is Clayton’s half page advert in the latest Nor’West News issue dated Monday 1st September.

And how old is the photo on the bottom left compared to top right. Or maybe the photo bottom left is post plugs and is actually more recent?

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The Stenographer Rooting Rule of Incumbency

The draft boundary changes suggest that there are a number of seats around the country that have become bluer, and that National should win them.

National Party board members and campaign managers careers are in the balance as if they don’t win seats like Auckland Central, Waimakariri and Port Hills they will have to explain how Labour can win such blue seats.

This is a bit tough on the National Board and campaigners. There will be a swing in 2014 to Labour, as in 2011 Labour got their worst result ever and National won an unprecedented 47% of the vote. This 20% margin will narrow.   Read more »

National Selection Update, Ctd

Readers should remember this blog does not take sides in selections and always encourages people willing to run to have a crack. The only time it will take sides is to highlight unethical or immoral campaigns by dodgy candidates who think they can rig a selection.

Waikato: –  Lindsay Tisch has stared down the party so far and will run another term. He was told he should spend more time with his family but his family are better at kicking doors down and shaking the shit out of people so when they told him to run again he thought he had better listen to his family.

Napier: – Some poor sap is going to get badly beaten by Labour’s Stu Nash. Nash has the earliest campaign hoardings in living memory.

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Has Labour’s Man Ban triggered the Spring Offensive early?

Yesterday I leaked Labour’s proposed “Man Ban” rule changes.

It seems I may have triggered the Spring Offensive early.

West Coast-Tasman MP Damien O’Connor said he was confident his electorate would “not ask for something so stupid” as a women-only candidate selection.    Read more »

Mainland Conference Reactions – Dumb comment of the day

Yesterday in my post on the National party mainland conference, there was this comment:

Minarchist_kiwi

Do you have a nice word for any National folk from the South Island?

1. If you seriously think ‘little Clayton’ is going to win next time you should knock on 1000 doors in Rangiora to see how well he is doing.
2. Michael Woodhouse delivered a party vote victory in Dunedin for the first time ever – if only National had scumbags in every electorate!
3. You are right about Jacqui Dean though – she has the most beautiful electorate in NZ.

I am sure it will be easy enough to find 10 good men and true to replace any retirements, assuming there actually are any – much like those 10 good MPs were found.

Perhaps a good point, if only it was correct.  Read more »

Whose electorate? Not his that is for sure

The Herald seems to think that Richard Prosser has an electorate when they went and canvassed opinion about his “Wogistan” comments:

electorate

 

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Will Comrade Kate Get made a Life Member of the CTU?

Kate Wilkinson has achieved what note union luminaries Jim Knox, Ken Douglas, and Mark Gosche never did. She has managed to increase union membership (pdf) in New Zealand. It is only a small increase but her average is way better than Jim, Ken and Mark so word is she is going to be made a life member of the CTU.

This is an amazing effort for someone who is nominally a right winger and her life membership would be deserving. Well done Comrade Kate.

 

With support like this…

Clayton Cosgrove is said to be trailing in Waimakariri by a substantial margin in a Fair fax poll released today.

The other day I highlighted his debranding and the personal endorsement of a PSA union rep.

Jillian Innes,  is actually the local PSA rep. How desperate must Clayton be that he has to use ring-ins for endorsements. This is the ad where Jillian Innes says she will be voting for Clayton Cosgrove.

Which made this email to the tipline this morning very interesting indeed:

Whale,

I read your post the other day about  the PSA rep endorsing Clayton Cosgrove. Something didn’t smell right about this so I went down to my local PostShop and looked at the electoral roll. Jillian Innes isn’t on the roll for Waimakariri but she is on the roll for Te Tai Tonga!

No wonder he is struggling for votes. Talk about a spectacular own goal for one little ad. First he debrands and doesn’t even mention Labour, then the person is outed as a PSA union hack and then they aren’t even on the electoral roll for Waimakariri.

The dishonesty around Clayton Cosgrove just grows and grows and grows.

Cosgrove in big trouble

Clayton Cosgrove, through de-branding in successive election cycles, had previously made Waimakariri a fortress for him. Theoretically it should also be a fortress for Labour.

Waimakariri Labour MP Clayton Cosgrove faces a crushing defeat as a new poll shows his National rival, Kate Wilkinson, has opened up a huge lead in the seat.

A Fairfax Media-Research International snap poll in the seat put Wilkinson on 53.9 per cent of decided voters against 36 per cent for Cosgrove. The only consolation for Cosgrove is that the poll of 250 voters had a margin of error of 6.2 per cent and a high proportion of undecided voters – 23.5 per cent.

The poll also showed a huge lead for National of 71.9 per cent to Labour’s 17.4 per cent.

That compares with 2008 when National won the party vote in the seat by 49.4 per cent to 33.9 per cent for Labour.

Clayton Cosgrove must have known this was a possibility because for the first time in a few elections he sought the safety of the list. Unfortunately for the voters they can’t truly get rid of Clayton Cosgrove because he sits at number 8 on Labour’s list.

iPredict has reversed overnight.